The dollar-yen pair turned to a rebound from a low of 114.42 recorded in European time (supported by the lower limit of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud) and surged to a high of 115.69 over the afternoon of US time. During this time, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud upper limit, the 21-day moving average, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo reference line and the turning line were broken, and the three-role turnaround, which suggests a strong buying signal, was relit. It is becoming a chart shape that impresses the improvement of.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental point of view, (1) the market reaction to geopolitical risks surrounding Ukraine is turning to "risk-avoidance yen buying → emergency dollar buying", and (2) soaring resource prices (crude oil, natural gas, etc. ), Global inflation concerns, (3) US Fed's hawkish inclination observation against the background of (2) above (results of a series of hawkish remarks from multiple US officials yesterday → toward the next March FOMC (Expectations of a significant rate hike and the spread of speculation about the start of early QT), (4) Clarification of the BOJ's stance on monetary easing , (5) There are materials reminiscent of the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the yen, such as the difference in the direction of monetary policy between Japan and the United States.

Conclusion for the daily analysis of USD/JPY on Feb 25

Based on the above, we will continue to anticipate a rise in the dollar-yen exchange rate as the main scenario. Today, the US January PCE core deflator (the Fed's most important inflation index) will be the focus of attention (scheduled to be announced at 20:30 Cambodian time). If the market forecast exceeds 5.1% year-on-year or 0.5% month-on-month, the flow of rising long-term interest rates in the US and the appreciation of the US dollar may accelerate further, incorporating the observation of a significant rate hike at the next FOMC. It will be necessary to pay attention to the upside risk of the dollar yen in overseas time today.

Today's forecast range: 115.00-116.00